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Insurance and Risk - Post I

I have blogged on the generalities of insurance and risk in the past but a quick search turns up my last comments on pre-existing conditions and how Obama's ideas "do away" with them. However, I want to write a series on risk and how insurance works. It is obvious a lot of people do not get insurance.

The Greenville Lions host an event entitled The Greenville Catfish Races. It is standard outdoor Northeast Wisconsin picinic bands, beers, and food, and yes catfish dinners are on the menu.

I do not know how they made it interesting other than having children participate by standing next to a tank. They had seven long tanks set up, they'ld put a glass plate on one end about 10" from the end and drop a catfish into the 10" portion of the tank, and when the start was sounded adults at each end of the tank would raise the glass plate. The first catfish to cross the line on the other end of the tank would be deemed the winner. Nothing remarkable in any of that.

However, let us say I was keeping book at this event. Furthermore let us say I charged $1.00 per play and offered a $10 prize if your pick won the race. I ask you would you play? Why or why not?

Election 2009 Commentary

The one thing clear from last night's results is President Obama can get people to come out and vote for him but if he is not on the ballot forget it. That is a bad omen for the Democrats next year.

Obama spent a fair amount of time in New Jersey and while he was less conspicuous in Virginia it is not like he was completely absent.

Now, the left is focusing on NY 23 in fact I just saw David Axelrod try to claim NY 23 was a microcosm of the national debate and how it favored the Democrats and the other two were strictly local races and did not reflect on the national debates.

Now, here is why David Axelrod is wrong about NY 23. Hoffman lost the race 49%-45% with Dede Scazzofava taking about 5.5% of the vote. In my earlier post on this I pass on a report by Jim Geraghty that Hoffman was absolutely clueless on issues of direct concern to the NY 23. That is, it is much more arguable that NY 23 was decided on local issues rather than national ones.

Now, last night on FNC on Hannity's show they had a focus group run by Frank Luntz. One man in the room stoutly declared his vote on the Virginia governor's race was only that. However, the rest of the discussion in that "focus group" was IMO unfocused and allowed Luntz and Hannity to say whatever they wanted.

One last thing. A lot of people were indignant about Scazzofava endorsing Owens after she left the race. Why does anyone expect her to do otherwise? The Republican Party cut her off at the insistence of the base activists -- loyalty is a two way street.

Red Storm Rising?

Or at least, I think it is safe to say the blue tide is now ebbing.

The two important items from last night are:

What impact does this have on President Obama
What impact does the results of NY23 have on the GOP?

Well, to answer item number one, I would respond this has a huge impact. Do you think President Obama was trying to get things passed too quickly before? You have seen nothing, there will be a lot more pressure now that there is a real signaling that President Obama's popularity is due to personal matters rather than policy matters. Does anyone believe if Corzine and Deeds (either or both) won their races the Democrats wouldn't be talking of vindication?

On item 2 and this one is the more contentious of the two questions I raise. Democrats are holding on to this one like a Titanic passenger holding onto a piece of flotsam. Was it a defeat for conservatism and does this mean the blue tide continues to rise? It was not a win there is no doubt about it but I think partisans from both sides are reading too much into Owen's victory there.

Dede Scozzafava is what most people consider very liberal, but she is a resident and presumably knowledgeable of the issues in the district. Hoffman, (according to reports I have seen) is from out of the NY23 district and Jim Geraghty has an interesting post on Hoffman's weaknesses as a candidate. Hoffman was not knowledgeable of the issues of direct concern to the NY23rd district and for what other reason do we elect representatives to congress for? Yeah, I want them to hold right views on taxes, medical care, national defense and so on, but they also need to understand about the things that directly affect their constituent's lives.

I have this notion that NY23 is like my district the WI-08. Most of the district is dominated by the local Republican Parties. If you want to win a local election in WI-08 counties you had better be a member of that county's Republican party. This means, if you hold leftist political views but want to become sheriff you need to join the Republican Party. It works this way in Democratic controlled counties too.

In addition, we see the country club effect too -- someone wants access to the business connections membership in the local dominant party confers. So you even though you may be a doctrinaire Democrat you end up being a power-player in the local Republican party. This sounds a lot like how Dede Scozzafava was tapped to be the candidate in the NY23.

While I would have preferred Hoffman to win, Owens is an improvement over Scozzafava.

Bud Light Collateral Advertising

How many of you have seen the advertisements for the goofy Bud-Light collateral? You know, the grooler -- the combination cooler & grill?

Last night, at a farewell party one of the people explained to us what all that goofy gear really is about. It seems like goofy stuff is being pitched but of course by now (if not before or earlier) you know the real product being pitched is the beer.

However, you do notice those advertisements do not mention beer, right? Well, the NCAA has a policy of not accepting advertisements for alcohol products or at least more and more colleges have this policy. The Bud Light collateral advertisements are just taking an advantage of a loophole and the brand awareness. The product being pitched is not beer so therefore colleges can take the money.

I have yet to see any of that gear on the streets but I am sure sooner or later it will start to show up here and there and in the thrift shops and at rummage sales.

The Latest Wave of 419 Scams

Involve around a job offer.

Typically the pitch involves:

We are an international company

Would you like a lucrative and prestigious jobs

We need you to process payments

I never read them all the way through too closely but the scam sounds like you are to take payments, deposit them into you bank account, and then the "company" receives payment via your account. Of course "leaving" some for you.

However, anyone with half a brain cell understands if one does receive "payments" they will be "dud cheques" and the Nigerians on the other end will clean out your account for all it is worth.

I do not know if that would really be a 419 scam but it is pretty close and in any case it is still obviously fraudulent.

Jerry Bader - The Mess He is In

I listen to a local talk show hosted by Jerry Bader on AM 1360. Recently he made a report on air and on his blog about a former Democratic candidate for governor of Wisconsin. I will not get into the details (you can see them by googling or following the link above). In any event he retracted his report and is now suspended for two weeks and WTAQ and its management is mulling Jerry's future with WTAQ.

The report was not widely discussed on the WI Blogs but James Wigderson made this initial post on the story. He is not so much passing it as fact but does note it had better be fact. However, the most interesting commentary is in in this post after Bader retracted the story:

Also interesting would have been a discussion of why the news organizations waited. They were not saints. WTMJ’s John Jagler wrote on Twitter, “the Barbara Lawton rumors have the entire media world freaking out. Who will be the first major news outlet to break it?”

When I tweeted back to him the link to Bader’s podcast, Jagler responded, “that’s not big enough”.

Not that WTAQ and Bader weren’t credible, or that Jagler didn’t believe what Bader said, or that they were trying to verify the story. Just that Jagler was hoping someone bigger would go with the story, prompting my sarcastic reply, “Really? That’s the excuse? (At this point I’ll refrain from making a joke about the shrinking of Journal Communications.)”

Source:Why blame the blogs? — Wigderson Pub & Library That is, the news people at WTMJ wanted to run with the story but were afraid to they wanted to run with a herd.

Fear of bad consequences is an important human emotion it prevents people from receiving bad consequences.

I heard the original reports from Jerry on air and wondered what was really to be gained from public knowledge of the story? Lawton was out of the race and from what we all pretty much know I think it can be assumed at the very least there was tremendous pressure from Democratic bigs on her to withdraw from the race.

I like Jerry and if WTAQ sends him packing, I will simply stop listening to WTAQ, I don't even need WTAQ for the 11am - 2pm talk show host, because if I am feeling like Rush I usually pull Rush up via internet stream.

The Unemployment Numbers

Reports state new unemployment filings continue to decline.

I expect to hear two diametrically opposed themes when the analyst and opinion makers get a hold of this story. One is Obama's stimulus is working. The other is Obama's stimulus is not working and the state controlled media is trying to spin what are awful stories into good stories.

I call BS on both.

Any trend before it can go in the reverse direction first has to slow down, stop, and then trend in the opposite direction. That is to say, before our economy can start adding jobs it must first lose jobs more slowly. In addition, we all have heard the arguments that unemployment is an awkward statistic. A person may fall out of the ranks of the unemployed because they have stopped looking, because their unemployment compensation is expired, or they have taken a new job. When a person gets a job, they just stop filing they don't give explicit alert to the change in their status. Pols, analysts, and economists then argue about the person's true status rather than knowing what it is.

Now, does Obama's stimulus have any hand in this reducing trend? Little if any, I see a crisis brought on by a bubble dynamic and it will take more than a sugar buzz to get us out of this situation.

Rushing the Rams -- Keith Olbermann for the Defense?

I heard this on the radio this morning and noted in another forum today. However, I got to thinking about this, as I heard very little about this today. However, I did a quick Google and sure enough Keith tagged the opponents of the Rush NFL deal as his third worst person of the day. From the report I link to, there is a bit of scoffing at how Rush is pouring good money down a hole but Olbermann is quoted as saying (and this quote IS attributed to a day & time and the link includes video):

"There are now going to be character tests for sports owners?" Olbermann said. "There will only be three of them left. Unless they beat the Vikings Sunday, as of next Thursday it will have been a full year since the Rams won a game. My God, if Limbaugh wants to buy them, far be it for me to tell them he's flushing his money down a rat hole."

Source: NewsBusters — Olbermann to Left-Wingers Opposed to Limbaugh’s Rams Purchase: Stand Down

As you can well imagine, I regard Keith Olbermann little, but I really salute him in this even if it is because he may be contemplating a similar purchase and does not want any bids of his own getting spiked because of his outspoken views.

Rushing Rush

With that old play known as fake, but accurate and it works this time. Apparently, Rush is no longer part of the buyers group. This is interesting.

A few observations.

Many opposed noted how sports and athletics is a unifying thing and the last thing it needs is a divisive figure. Well, friends, it takes to two or more to be divisive. So, divisiveness as usual is defined as not agreeing with the left or perhaps at being an effective spokesmen against the left.

I find it quite interesting the left is peddling all of these horrible quotes. However, they can not provide any specifics. They talk and parrot two main lines (which I will not repeat) but can not provide any sourcing for those quotes. In fact, at least one quote appears to be originally attributed to Rush by some blogger. The left is now retreated to their fallback position of fake, but accurate.

As a long time listener of Rush (I don't listen to Rush all the time but often enough) I agree with the fake but strenuously disagree with accurate. Most of those in this fight against Rush do not listen to Rush and base their opinions on what is relayed to them by the mainstream mastodons.

The NFL is full of thugs and the commissioner reinstated Michael Vick (I supported Vick's reinstatement) which I remember seeing a lot of people in my social network disapprove of.

Fighting dogs we are okay with, fighting leftists we are not.